Trying to build an ML model to predict stock returns using financial ratios — which features should I focus on?

Project

Hey everyone,

I’m working on a small ML project where I’m using yearly financial statement data (multiple companies across different sectors) to predict future stock returns / price movement.

Right now I have features like:

  • EPS
  • PE ratio
  • Total assets
  • Total debt
  • Shareholders’ equity
  • Debt/Equity
  • Cash ratio
  • Inventory
  • Receivables
  • Shares outstanding

I’m planning to:

  • Create future return as target (shifted price)
  • Use time-based train/test split
  • Try tree models like RandomForest / XGBoost

From your experience, which financial ratios tend to be more useful for this kind of model?

Should I focus more on:

  • Profitability metrics?
  • Leverage?
  • Liquidity?
  • Growth-related features instead of raw values?

Also, is it generally better to use raw balance sheet values or engineer more ratios?

Posted Mar 2, 2026, 4:16 PM UTC

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