I built a player prop projection tool because I got tired of “lock” culture. Curious what serious bettors actually look for.

I’ve been betting player props for a while and got frustrated with the usual stuff you see everywhere:

• “100 unit max lock” posts

• Picks posted after the game already started

• No transparency on how the pick was even chosen

• No projection comparisons vs sportsbook lines

So over the last few months I built a small projection engine for myself that looks at player stats, expected minutes, matchup factors, and compares that against sportsbook lines to find potential edges.

It ended up turning into a small platform that a few people are using now (around 50 users so far).

Main things it outputs:

• projection vs sportsbook line differences

• a ranked list of highest edge props

• confidence scoring based on model variance

• a “top plays” list for the slate

I’m not here to sell anything — I’m genuinely curious what serious prop bettors actually care about when evaluating picks.

For those of you who bet props regularly:

What matters most to you?

For example:

• raw projections?

• historical hit rates?

• matchup data?

• minutes projections?

• injury impact modeling?

Trying to figure out what data actually helps people make decisions vs what’s just noise.

Would love to hear how you guys approach props.