Thoughts on the market right now
Despite the rallies off the lows, SPX remains below the pivot, which means that by definition sellers are still in control on this tape. We are still in a sell the rips type tape.
Buyer are doing hard to defend the important grey box, which lines up closely with the 21W EMA as well. Bulls are trying to maintain the structure. But its very precarious.
News this morning of Iran reaching out seemed flimsy. I want to see how the market responds. if there's not much positive reaction, coupled with almost no positive reaction to Trump saying that he would escort ships through the Strait, then that's confirmation of how much this is a sellers tape.
in this tape, be wary. I am not loaded on puts, as buyers are showing resolve, but am holding cash.
Liquidity at December lows (where we bounced yesterday) is strong. Liquidity at November lows is stronger. We won't crash from this Iran war, so remove that from your head. This tape is too propped up. But there is room to the downside.
Sellers have the advantage. We just need to see how much they can press it. Buyers are resilient for now. Trump is trying to use news to help the tape. But let's see.
Posted Mar 4, 2026, 12:11 PM UTC