Hello! Season 49 was my first attempt at edgic which I did just on my own for fun. But I wanted to test the waters with posting my thoughts for season 50! I am unspoiled.

A big theme I potentially caught onto is the emphasis in the premiere of building relationships FIRST before following through with strategy. This is evidenced by Kyle saying this is not chess, this is people and "you have to form relationships first." With his glowing edit, I'd listen to him. Great news for Vatu since he asked them to win, especially Genevieve. 

But regardless, I generally intend to rank people higher if I see them following that theme of relationship building. I apologize if any confessional quotes aren't quite right, since I'm going off of my own abbreviated handwritten notes. And if there's anything I'm weakest on when it comes to edgic, it's the actual ratings in my chart. So I am fully open to criticism on that front as well as in general.

Anyway!

1) Christian

I am very fortunate that my preseason winner pick is still someone I can proudly claim is one of the most viable contestants in terms of win equity from the premiere. He gets content about his intended playstyle, his secret kid, hero moment starting fire with the glasses, and strategically focused on with his Rick and Emily alliance more or less taking credit for the decision to boot Jenna. He states he's "looking for someone to connect with" for the future early on. I wonder if him finding Rick is him already succeeding in that department and making relationships just like Kyle recommended separately in the episode. He related his gameplay to his family, which is huge to get in a premiere alongside his own opinion that narrative is important. His alliance even has the Star Trek stuff going for it which is expressly memorable. His "narrative warfare" is teed up for him to drive a really deep run in my opinion.

2) Ozzy

Another of my consistent draft picks, there is no ignoring his abundant relevance in this premiere. He has a voice over quote at the beginning and is featured in the beginning flashback. Visibility doesn't equal win equity. However, we saw much of his circumstantial edit be purposefully through his lens, even when other people such as Q or Coach or Cirie could have shouldered more narrative responsibility. He even makes what could be a worse decision by choosing the extra vote instead of camp supplies, but it's framed through his reasoning that makes it seem right for his game. He says he intends to play a different, more mature game by building relationships first. Green flags! I'm putting Ozzy here until the smoke clears and we can see what an episode looks like when he's not at the center of everything. Regardless, the feeling that he's in the center of everything is a purposeful editing choice in itself. Plus, this is outside of the game but adds to my suspicion: >!he's doing a tour of watch parties all season long so I feel he has longevity no matter what.!<

3) Rick

If Christian is the perceived head of the alliance, Rick inherits all those positive traits. His season's flashback, characterization as likeable, and strategic fleshing are apparent and he somehow becomes one of the most memorable people from the entire premiere. I also have my eye on how he and Christian speak soon after each other during introductory confessionals. He does have a shot of him falling over, which is a microcosm of the goofball image I feel they're trying to put out (evidenced further by Aubry calling him "bullsh--"). I think he is less assuming than Christian (who calls him "my idol hound") which could mean inheriting his edit's regard down the line. Advantages seem to really matter for Rick again. He even gets the final confessional of decision before the first tribal (where he says IF Ozzy isn't good for my game, I'll take him out, which is a conditional to watch out for). Although, if I had to guess, I think Rick is far more vulnerable to a swap boot than Christian. It is hard not to pair their edits similarly in ranking though, even if I think as of right now that Rick is the Luigi of the alliance.

4) Stephenie

I know I know this really sucks. But she had a huge focus in the throwback at the beginning, and her story with Colby was emphasized with a flashback as well. She has a winner quote and great confessional timing traditionally for winners in premieres. She sets up her intention, gets in and gets out. She also has the camera hang on her for an extra second in the marooning challenge with Angelina saying "Yeah Stephenie!" alongside other more minor yet overall gratuitous challenge credit like Jeff saying "It's been years since Stephenie played, you'd never know it." She also introduces everyone needing to step away from Kyle. Present but not overwhelming, I think she will be very relevant regardless of if she wins. Plus, she shouldered a ton of narration for Genevieve's BEBI (Billie Eilish Boomerang Idol) which was completely unnecessary despite her being present for it. Genevieve even credits her specifically for putting it in her backpack for her. Something to watch out for.

5) Genevieve

If I'm reading into Stephenie too much, let me take a more straight shot and say that Genevieve's content is surprisingly good. We're getting mother this season!! Even though it could be read as circumstantial, she got Kyle's focus during his medical evacuation, and she alerts the audience what her play style intends to look like and who she allies with clearly. Rizo calls her "ready to kill" in the fashion show that hardly showed anyone other than her and Kyle. She speaks so soon after Kyle early on in the episode about how she intends to form relationships as a contrast to her gameplay last time. I recall reading a user on this sub saying that there's a general theme of redemption and correcting mistakes during this second run. She suits that perfectly, and I see the clearest path for her story out of perhaps this entire cast, save for Ozzy and Coach. She's narratively responsible though for showing a clip where Ozzy gets sent home with an idol. I wouldn't be surprised if she comes out on top, given he doesn't directly prove her wrong throughout his season 50 redemption.
Bonus: she describes Kyle as a personal friend (making connections first) as well as part of her gameplay and the next episode preview out right now leans into this. Maybe I have her too low tbh.

6) Colby

If Stephenie's relationship with Colby isn't featured for her sake, it might be for his (even though it's presented through her lens). He's charming, persistent in visibility, got a matchat, and his relationship with Rizo is incredibly endearing/memorable. He believes he can work with Savannah after losing to her on the journey, which I can't tell if that's supposed to be seen as a mistake or not. He describes himself as "I don't have the mental capacity" about keeping track of advantages in the new era. I'm not super feeling his winner edit, but I can see longevity in the game written all over him. It's possible. Plus he's the face of a lot of press.

7) Coach

I am well aware that he fell right back into his classic Coach ways, preaching about honesty and integrity while playing duplicitously. Mike is even shown saying "Coach is not playing with honesty and integrity." Christian even names him at his tribal by joking maybe Coach is doing a good job not making waves on Coach's beach, which is shown to be an accurate dig at his upcoming behavior. Coach's feud with Ozzy obviously super matters this season, even going so far as to have both Coach and Ozzy mention their relationship specifically in preseason video summaries. Either way, if someone wins from original Kalo, I believe it's either him or Mike White. The reason for that is I have little faith in anyone else's edit with how uncomplex a tribe it is. I'll be keeping an eye out for if anyone gets more relevant during swaps though. I could foresee an edit for Coach where he overcomes his downsides planted in episode one since he has a lot of genuine promise (voice over line AND matchat at the start). When he steps up to go on the battle for supplies, he says "the hero or the goat, here we go!" If we're to go by this premiere alone, Ozzy probably prevails, but I won't count out a Coach surprise. 

8) Emily

I can't really see how this puts Emily in much of an amazing winning position other than being a part of the most influential alliance in the premiere. She has great insight to herself as a player, surprising me by being reality TV gold yet again off rip. But if anyone from that alliance gets clipped first, I would not be surprised if it's her. She drove the Ozzy decoy vote, which was apparently a bigger idea than was shown. Regardless, it didn't come to fruition and she explained why what happened would be worse for her own game even. And yet! She is still part of the most influential alliance in the premiere and plants personal story seeds. So she stays here.

9) Mike

He's ripped! Isn't that cool guys? I love his snippet about where his head's at with the game, and even though he's a celebrity and they had to focus on him at some point, I think he seems pertinent enough to prop up to this position. His real life popularity is a bit of an obstruction in the way of seeing his edit's intentionality. He could be getting great content because he's a huge deal. But he was memorable, characterized, thoughtful, and intentional with his silliness being backed up by his playstyle's objective. He even got the episode title, if that matters to anyone.

10) Jonathan

Sure I'll drink the Kool-Aid and make sure he's in my top ten. His conversation with Chrissy doesn't really go anywhere, so I'll say benefit of the doubt is that it's a seed planted for later. I'm not really feeling it, but edgically he does everything he needs to do. He's featured shouting in support of Jeff in the matchat even though I don't think he had to, and his first confessional about Coach was subverted by saying it was his tricky plan to make it about Coach all along since Coach likes being the hero. He stated his gameplan intention, what's different this time, and makes sure we know who he is going into Survivor 50. It's conditional however, since he needs to be more strategic this time to follow through on his premiere's promise. Will he? I don't think so. But I'm leaving in room for if he does.

11) Savannah

One of Savannah's most notable moments for me in her earlier confessionals is she says she needs people to trust her for her to do well in this game. She has laid out her conditional statement for us. We need to see if she acts on it. Another conditional she lays out is "IF I can hold onto this [journey advantage] without anyone knowing about it." I'll be on high alert for if people don't trust her, or if people find out about her advantage. Honestly people already seem to not be trusting her, but it was in favor of making sure no one knows about her advantage. Rick doesn't buy it. Rick thinks Ozzy is playing a provider role again too. Are we supposed to be listening to Rick? I truthfully don't know yet, but I think so. He's right about Savannah! Not a great sign.

After her, it's a race to the bottom in my opinion. I am somewhat confident the winner lies in my top 10, but Savannah shouldn't be counted out. No one in the top 20 can really be counted out after one abnormally formatted episode. Despite her edit's red flags, she's been there before. Her winner edit was no stranger to negativity, and I would honestly love to see her go really far again despite the distrust she's sewn amongst her tribe. If pressed, I'd say I don't think she wins. But for now I have her here. I won't be too embarrassed if she goes home next episode or really soon in any way, since I could also read this as being super visible before an early exit. However, if she breaks past that and stays the unkillable cockroach she is, I can see the vision.

12) Dee

I'm grasping at straws at this point, but Dee reminds us who she is and how she plans to play. Thank you, Dee.

13) Cirie

This would be a weird premiere episode for her if she won. I feel as if she would have had more credit attributed to her for assessing the tribe dynamics in the deleted scene, or getting her own self out of being in the hot seat. She doesn't do either of those things, and her emotional mat chat and flashback significance makes me think she has yet another tragic exit this season. She doesn't even really have a clear storyline set up.

14) Rizo

I see him way more through Colby's eyes than his own, but if Colby's SPV means something, I can picture a universe where Rizo takes that momentum and runs with it. He states he needs to go from fan to player, as well as learn from those who came before him, in order to do well. That's a possible story! In truth though, I feel this is yet another weirdly pertinent arc for Rizo where he'll be absent for a lot of it but come in with his classic big swings. We are reminded he's lovable yes, but also reminded of what makes him prickly. His mixed tone confuses me, so he's in the middle for now.

15) Q

He's present. He's hardly as characterized as I'd have expected, being nearly irrelevant to the SoPa rematch unfolding in front of him. I cannot believe they managed a toneless Q but they did. I don't think he wins, but there's more to chew on than anyone beneath him on this tier who I have more or less counted out. He's got an early confessional, and says "it's better to be the hero than the zero, it's better to be me than Ozzy" to paraphrase. And Angelina calls him a hero like immediately after! Worth listening to? Time will tell.

16) Joe

I'm frowning as I put him in this high of a position. He's present, relevant, and doing his same old Joe stuff. His first confessional talks about everyone else other than himself. He fails to get out his preferred target (just like Savannah so take that how you will), but I don't put a ton of stock into "getting their way" at tribal since we've seen winners want someone out but act on it successfully later on in their season. Not much else on this guy.

17) Chrissy

She excitedly relays how hard she plans on playing and then her attempt to play hard falls on an almost immediate edit dead end. But she had a throwback episode dedicated to her in the lead up to 50 that wasn't even that cool. She probably plays an important role. When she says "the one who wins this game will have to be adaptable and always thinking," I would take that more as something to look out for in other people than for herself.

18) Aubry

Hey Aubry what the fuck was that?? At least she has a thread to grasp onto in terms of what's important to pay attention to for her. And she's on a pretty complex tribe for now. I have a feeling her Genevieve beef favors Genevieve more than her, but she got some content as Kyle left and had a voice over at the beginning of the episode. Weird foot to start off on.

19) Kamilla

I like her saying that this is more of a season for her than 48 was. I hope it is.

20) Angelina

At least she re-introduced herself.

21) Tiffany

At least her confessional was about her own alliance.

22) Charlie

If a player only receives content describing other players and never mentions their own story or playstyle, I just have no choice but to lock them in the bottom slot dungeon. I don't think his edit can be resuscitated whatsoever :(


Thank you to anyone who read all this!! I've been a lurker since 47 and always am excited to read what people have to say in this sub. I'm elated to participate this time :D

Season 50 Edgic - Ep 1