I have a real MLB model. Not picks. Not a service. Just 7 years of data showing the same edge keeps showing up. Here's what it looks like.

I know how this sounds. Everyone has a model. Everyone's up on the season. So let me just put the numbers out there and you can decide what to do with them.

7 year backtest. 4 strategies. Average ROI of 10.5% per season. On a $10k bankroll that's averaging around $20k profit a season. Profitable in 6 of 7 years. Only losing year was -2.1% in 2020.

The whole thing is systematic — no discretion, no gut feel, no "I like the Dodgers tonight." Every play comes out of the model and I take it without second guessing. That discipline is honestly half the edge because the model is built to remove the behavioral stuff that makes most people bleed money on sports — chasing line movement, overweighting recent results, getting married to narratives.

The 4 strategies target different things and don't move together. When one has a bad stretch the others are usually flat or up. That's by design. A single strategy with a 10.5% average ROI would have brutal variance across a 162 game season. Four uncorrelated ones with the same average is a completely different risk profile.

I'm not posting the strategies. They're the whole point. But if you actually want to dig into what consistent edge in baseball markets looks like — the numbers, the drawdown structure, how variance plays out across a full season — drop a comment or hit my DMs. Happy to walk through it.