[50][Speculation] I’m not sold on Aubry winning yet.

Howdy! Sorry that this post is so long it’s just something I’ve been brooding over all this week lmao. I’m just gonna jump right into it.

We have:

**SU / Sirvivor** saying it’s Cirie

**Robot / Ok-line** saying it’s Aubry

We’ve all seen the leaks the past couple of months so I’m not going to spend much time delving into each and every point .. but one thing that’s safe to say — everyone’s been right at some point! (& this has been a hectic season)

Before my main point of the post (which is gonna be **Kalshi**, aka the elephant in the room), I just want to say I’m personally on the Cirie train. And honestly, we still are yet to able to definitively rule her out. I’m thinking there was very calculated “mis”-information spread this season, mis in quotes because it was mixed with real information. And I think it’s been a coordinated effort by production and cast alike to keep things under wraps.

To piggyback on that a little, SirVivor — back in July called Cirie. For the longest, SU thought it was Steph, now (recently) believes it’s Cirie. And Robot / Ok-Line, months after that came with Aubry. Leading rumor being that it was an OS woman. I’m putting the most cred on SirVivor, I’m a first boot Gen/Jen believer, and aside from that he was first on the scene with Kyle’s specific injury & exile. I don’t know! My guts just telling me we had all the info from the beginning before the misinfo campaign could kick into gear. If Robot had been snappy with it that’s one thing, but it was months after the show ended by that point.

**Alright, I know I’m saying a whole lot of nothing, but my main point of this post is an argument against Kalshi.**

Who had the most widespread known accuracy as a leaker? Robot. What opened up very shortly after Robot leaked? The Kalshi market. Who has been radio silent since? Robot. It was also shortly after 49 ended and was completely spoiled, the first mainstream survivor season on the platform.

Here’s what I think happened. SirVivor leaked everything way too “early”, which pissed some people off, but because they were basically backed into a corner with the OS woman situation they had limited options. I think Steph and some accurate info was given to one camp, and Aubry and some accurate info was given to the other. Both with the intention of covering up Cirie and not caring what info had to be given up for that to happen.

When the Kalshi market opened, it jumped up in Aubry’s favour with Robot’s leak being the only widespread answer. At the time, Joe and Jonathan rounded out the top 3. I think you can look at this in two ways. On one hand, maybe they are the final 3. Maybe the initial betting reflected who was sitting there at the end (since it’s a live final), and “insiders” hedged their bets. On the other hand, maybe they were the 3 most bet on because those were the 3 names specifically given as the final 3 shortly before it opened. One notable point I have is the fact that Cirie has risen and is now second. Rehitting 11% before the premiere. Which brings me to the premiere.

I think it’s too big to reverse at this point. Aubry has consistently been the leader this betting season, which I think could possibly be confirmation bias. When you look at other shows, or the past season of this one over the past year .. the majority of the time if there’s a runaway leader it tends to be accurate. I think since this was promoted on Kalshi’s *home* page, the general public saw a runaway leader and ran with it just like all of the other ones.

One notable example I want to point out, if you go to Kalshi and look at the comments for this years thread, you can see someone named “Lord.Farquaad” bet $38,000 on Aubry winning. They cashed out at $45,500 (after her odds skyrocketed post premier, max payout was $50k.) That’s just a PUBLIC example, but since Kalshi has a social aspect too it — a lot of people are doing similar things! People are making a career betting on random shit like that, and if you go to his profile you also see beast games / the traitors.

My thing is .. how many people were just like him? There’s a lot of whales on that app .. who’s to say Aubry’s number wasn’t boosted off of bets like that, solely based on the initial Robot rumor, so it turned into the propping up of Aubry. And how many people bet on her just to make money without the intent of staying through finale? A lot of people could cash out at say merge and still profit.

People used the premiere as immediate confirmation that Aubry won. I’m not so sure. Yes her percentage was raised, and in doing so Cirie’s was lowered (still 2nd), but … y’all .. there was literally a Kalshi commercial .. DURING the episode. (At least in Texas). The thread was already on the home page.. and the damn app was advertised in tangent with the show. + based on the comments a lot of people went to that app and were upset at the “runaway winner.” Aka they took her being in the lead and growing as confirmation, which to me looks like it became a revolving door of bets that kept reinforcing her.

BASICALLY, I’m of the belief that yes Kalshi has been accurate in the past, yes Robot is a reliable source, but I think at the very least it’s possible that because of those two things being true ,, it could mean wrong info was pushed as the front runner and now that there’s so much volume it’s too late to reverse / change the opinion.

Two more things I want to note but on a lesser scale. There was recently a comment on Sucks that was deleted (or removed?) that basically said Jeff and production were upset about Kalshi ruining the game in 49 so they came up with a plan to trick everyone. The comment stated that they justified using some of their advertisement budget to skew the Kalshi odds in Aubry’s favour so the season can remain unspoiled. Now, I’m skeptical about that .. but .. they do seem to be working together? Maybe not exactly? But the survivor thread being on Kalshi’s homepage + the commercial during the premiere. *MAYBE?* I know that’s starting to get crock-potty, but idk, since this season has been very “Odds-Focused”, there’s a greater than 1% less than 20% chance that could’ve happened? Maybe they literally covered all bases and manipulated Kalshi?

Lastly, so many people want to bring up “insider trading”, but I just want to point out how Kalshi said they were referring the Beast Games producer to the FBI and they fined them. I feel like it gets lost in translation that this is illegal?? They WILL prosecute people who inside trade, and yes, some people get away with it .. but I don’t think it’s as widespread as SFN wants you to believe. And with Cirie at second with 350k bet on her .. who’s to say the insiders didn’t hedge smaller with a bigger payout to stay under the radar?

**TLDR: All in all, I’m not convinced with Aubry. Too many signs point to Cirie, and I think at the very least it’s possible to explain Kalshi and use it in tangent with Robot being an accurate leaker. I think production and the cast may have covered it up and had some fun in doing so. I’m staying on the Cirie train til we go off the rails because there’s nothing that rules her out to me. I think we’ve been bamboozled. Who’s with me!🤪**

Oh, slight epilogue. Just a friendly reminder that Fair_Leave5014 / SFN was ADAMANT Savannah didn’t win last season. They had no doubt in their mind and reminded everyone every single day how wrong we were for believing the “false Sav rumors”. I just bring this up because they and their 10 accounts are the main driver in the Aubry storyline. Hell - they might be right! It might be her! But it seems like they got humbled with what happened last time and are reversing course and running it back a different way this time. I just wouldn’t take anything they say too seriously. (And I think they should get some help.)

The end!🤣