Now, before anybody calls this a random match up, I chose these because these are both 2026 predictions where the overall prediction seems to be around the same range, that being $1.2-1.4B ish.

Super Mario Galaxy is the sequel to the Super Mario Bros movie, which grossed $575M domestic and $786M overseas for a worldwide total of $1.361B. Some advantages Mario Galaxy has is that the first movie was very well received, as it got an A on CinemaScore, a 95% verified audience score, and great legs (2.8x legs from the $205M 5-day debut). Furthermore, the film is adding some fan-favorite characters such as Bowser Junior, Yoshi, and Rosalina. Moreover, just like the first film, it has virtually no competiton. There has basically been nothing out in theaters since Avatar: Fire and Ash back in December 2025 and no major kids film in theaters since Zootopia 2 back in November 2025. Therefore, Mario Galaxy should also benefit from pent up demand. 

However, one major disadvantage the sequel has it that it simply doesn't have the novelty factor of the first movie. The first movie was the first time Mario has ever been done justice on the big screen. Many sequels see decreases because of this "lack of novelty" effect. For example: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($1.308B) decreased from Jurassic World ($1.671B). Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($1.332B) decreased from Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($2.068B). Spider-Man 2 ($783M) decreased from Spider-Man 1 ($804M). Deadpool 2 ($735M excluding China) decreased from Deadpool 1 ($786M).There are several other examples of this. Also, on the topic of some of the fan favorite characters being added, the question is like. . is there really a kid who refused to watch Mario 1 but will beg their parents to see Mario 2 because "oh look Yoshi is in it". . .ehh nah I don't think

Meanwhile, Spider-Man: Brand New Day is the sequel to Spider-Man: No way Home, which grossed $805M domestic and $1.107B overseas for a worldwide total of $1.912B. Some advantages Spider-Man: Brand New Day has is that No Way Home had incredibly good reception. It got a 93% RT, a 98% verified audience score, and an A+ CinemaScore from audiences. In fact, all MCU Spider-Man movies have great reception, garnering at least a 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and an A or higher on CinemaScore. Furthermore, it is directed by Destin Daniel Cretton, who directed Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, another movie with fantastic reception (92% RT, 98% verified RT audience score, and an A CinemaScore). This movie should have tons of juice coming off of a well received predecessor. It is true that comic book movies have been in a rut recently, but certain events and major characters like Spider-Man are immune to superhero fatigue. 

Of course, this is not going to be as large as No Way Home. It doesn't have December legs, and of course, this movie isn't a massive multiverse event with Tobey + Andrew + Green Goblin + Doctor Octopus + Electro + Sandman + Lizard + Venom. This will be much more small scale and "lowkey" than No Way Home, as it has the Punisher and Hulk as the guest characters. Bringing back Savage Hulk (yes, Savage Hulk is coming back!) should be a pretty strong draw, as Red Hulk managed to bring a terrible Sam Wilson Captain America movie to $415M WW (which is "only" 20% less than a really well received Fantastic Four movie). Oh and also, it's the last MCU movie before Avengers: Doomsday. This isn't gonna absolutely carry it like how Avengers: Endgame carried Captain Marvel, but I think putting a Doomsday trainer in front of this movie should help draw in more audiences to this movie. This movie should still be huge, around Deadpool 3 numbers is my guess.

Which will gross more worldwide? - The Super Mario Galaxy Movie or Spider-Man: Brand New Day