Buying a good idea? First time homebuyer

Hi everyone. I’m PCSing to NC this summer and my wife and I are considering buying our first house with the VA loan. We’re looking at new builds in the Hampstead area. We’ll be there at least two years and possibly as many as four, and we’d plan to rent it out for another 4-7 years afterwards. So total planned ownership of 6-10 years. Pretty torn on what to do, because there are many positives with regard to the area’s growth but some of the numbers look less than ideal.

-O-3 with over 6 years TIS. Will be over 8 this fall and promotion to O-4 in ~18 months

-BAH for Camp Lejeune area with dependents- $2,085

The house and community:

-New build: ~$390k @ 5.696%

-$0 down

-1800 sq ft, 4bd/2.5ba

-Mortgage payment: $2,700/mo

-Community will have a clubhouse and pool

-Walking distance to a top-rated elementary school

About the area:

-20min drive to Wilmington and 45mins from Camp Lejeune and MCAS New River

-A bypass is being built to alleviate traffic between Wilmington and Lejeune

-New business parks and shopping centers are being built in Hampstead

-New K-8 school being built

-Tons of new build communities. 500+ homes were recently approved to be built by local governments due to population growth in Wilmington and Surf City. This indicates strong demand but existing homes are often being undercut by new builds. This could either happen to me in a few years or the market will stabilize and see solid growth

-Rent prices for a 4bd in the area are generally $2k-$2,200/mo, but have less square footage, are single level, or have some bedrooms on the ground floor. Not many single family homes with all the bedrooms upstairs with comparable square footage to the one we like

Misc:

-With President Trump’s new Fed Chair taking over soon, and Trump’s demand for lower interest rates, a refi could be in the cards after a couple years if rates drop low enough

-After I leave NC, it’s exceedingly unlikely that I’ll return to the Jacksonville area in the future. If anything it’d be Cherry Point, which is 1hr 45mins from Hampstead- an unrealistic commute

-As of now, don’t want to settle down in Hampstead long term. This buy would build equity to help with a future downpayment, probably in DC metro area.

So all in all, Hampstead is growing very rapidly. I feel like over 5-10 years buying could turn out to be a good move. With a new build also you’d expect fewer issues like broken HVAC, water heater, etc. anytime soon.

But the mortgage payment immediately eclipses most rents in the area, which makes the math for renting it out later troubling. Could I refi before then? Who knows.

Thoughts?