BYD down ~36% YoY in Jan-Feb... is the EV king losing its crown? (BYD, NIO, Zeekr, Xiaomi, Li Auto, Xpeng)
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/drawdown-byd-chinese-ev-sales-mixed-results-holiday-lull.html
Just saw the latest numbers and honestly didn't expect this. BYD's combined Jan-Feb sales dropped roughly 36% year-on-year (adjusted for Chinese New Year). Meanwhile pretty much everyone else is up ; Nio +77%, Zeekr +84%, Xiaomi +48%.
Obviously seasonality plays a role but this feels like more than just that. Competitors have been going hard on value-packed models at competitive prices and it's clearly working. BYD held like 26-34% of the China NEV market in 2024-2025, but that gap is narrowing fast.
The interesting play here is that BYD seems to be pivoting to exports as a hedge ; overseas sales crossed 1M units in 2025 for the first time, and in February exports actually beat domestic sales for the first time ever. That's wild.
Also the reinstatement of the 5% purchase tax on NEVs at end of 2025 probably pulled forward a ton of demand, leaving a vacuum heading into 2026.
Curious what you guys think ; is this a temporary blip or the start of a real structural shift? Still long on BYD personally but watching closely.
Posted Mar 5, 2026, 11:36 AM UTC