What do you make of this rule of thumb with respect to whose winning Best Picture and Best Actor?

RULE:

1. If Michael B Jordan wins for Best Actor, Sinners is winning Best Picture

2. If he loses, OBAA is winning Best Picture.

Because that is what I gleaned from SAG showing up and showing out for Sinners last weekend.

Best Actor is so fascinating to me this year. However I do think this helps Leo a lot in terms of pulling an upset because if you love OBAA.. you probably have him high on your ballot than most of the nominees (maybe 1, 2 and 3 at worst)

And im not ruling out any nominee in this race btw (anything can happen) but...

Marty Supreme and Timothee Chalamet momentum being down in terms of optics and just it not being visible within the overall picture of what should be awarded has hurt it a lot. Especially when seeing how it hasnt won anything from both industry award bodies.

I struggle to have a read on Wagner and Ethan with regards to what the passion behind their work can get them..

And MBJ has made a great case for himself in terms of visibility and endorsement from an industry body like SAG.

Leonardo is in the film that is likely to win Best Picture. I compare it to Nomadland and Frances McDormand being carried by its momentum. And I think it can work for him here. Obviously Robert Aramayo winning BAFTA muddies the water by a large margin 😭