Natural Gas +45%, Oil Near $90: How the Middle East Crisis Moved Energy Markets

Energy markets turned volatile this week as the escalation of conflict in the Middle East disrupted energy supply and shipping routes across the Persian Gulf.

Security incidents and attacks on energy infrastructure increased risks around the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG trade.

At the same time, a drone attack targeted Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery, temporarily halting operations and adding to supply concerns in global oil markets.

Price action
Natural gas

• European benchmark Dutch TTF surged about 45%, one of the largest moves since the 2022 energy crisis
• Prices spiked toward €46/MWh during the initial reaction

Oil

• Brent crude jumped around 10–13% early in the week, rising to about $82 per barrel

• By March 6, Brent approached $90 as supply risks remained elevated

Stock market reaction
Energy stocks outperformed while broader markets weakened.

US LNG exporters

• Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG): +7%
• Venture Global: +16%

European majors

• Shell: +2–3%
• TotalEnergies: +4–5%
• ExxonMobil: +2–3%

Meanwhile, major equity indices opened lower, reflecting concerns that higher energy prices could pressure global growth.

• EU gas storage: about 39% full, compared with ~52% a year ago
• Markets remain sensitive to any disruption involving the Strait of Hormuz, given its importance for global energy flows

Higher oil and gas prices could increase inflation pressures if supply disruptions persist.

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