FWI: Iranian Azerbaijan under Baku control since 2026

Iranian Azerbaijan have lots of ethnic Azerbaijani, and if the area is under the control of the current Azerbaijan state, it would also help connect the current Azerbaijan country with its current exclave as well as Turkey which is their main ally, to form a completely Turkic corridor connecting Europe to Central Asia bypassing Georgia and Armenia. Thus it appears like Baku and Ankara have plenty of reason to want to control the area.

And with how drones from Iran but Iran government disclaimed that attacked Azerbaijan's exclave, and with the way Azerbaijan response seems to be quite aggressively, it seems not impossible for Azerbaijan to join the US/Israel side of thing if things continue moving at current pace.

And Azerbaijan's military also seems rather capable in their war against Armenia a few years back, with Iran's military capabilities quickly weakening thanks to US/Israel bombardment.

So it doesn't seems unlikely that at some point in near future, there might be non-zero probability that Azerbaijan might make military moves against Iran, and obtain territorial gain through the process.

How would this affect everything?

Note: This is not just about after conflict, but also during conflict too. Azerbaijan is now on the corridor sandwiched between Russia and Iran for all sort of traffic that connect Europe to Central Asia and East Asia. If they are blocked too, then airlines must detour all the way to the south of Arabian peninsula, and any land or maritime travel must instead route via Xinjiang, as one must also remember that despite overshadowed by other news, Afghanistan is also having a war now against Pakistan starting just this week.