Non-Refundable Edit booking - refunds due to current middle east conflict? (Looking for datapoints, not judgment)

Hello everyone, I have a non-refundable Edit booking in April. The booking itself is not in a conflict zone, but my flight connects through one. Everything else about the trip is refundable, but only for a couple more days, and I am probably canceling. I am well aware that the answer to this question is always "Don't make non-refundable bookings." I am just wondering if anyone has successfully gotten one refunded through Chase for this current and specific reason. Alternate flights to my destination would now cost more than twice what my original flight cost, for a longer itinerary with more connections.