With series 2 out, most collectors are likely chasing young guns of this year's notable rookies, but these rookie box sets also include some interesting parallels and autograph cards.  Making some assumptions, I took a guess at the print run and odds below.  I don't have any inside info to know if these guesses are accurate but will walk through the math.  If you have a different perspective on it or see what might be an error, happy to hear it.  There's always risks to attempting math on the internet.

**Available Set Information:**

* 25 base rookie cards per box (25:1)
* 1 parallel card per box (1:1)
   * Non-numbered blue parallel (1:2)
   * Non-numbered regular auto (1:26)
   * Gold Parallel (#'d to 249)
   * Orange Parallel (#'d to 99)
   * Red Parallel (#'d to 50)
   * Green Parallel (#'d to 25)
   * Blue Auto Parallel (#'d to 25)
   * Black Parallel (#'d to 5)
   * Black Auto Parallel (#'d to 1)

**Assumptions:**

* For one rookie, there are 454 numbered parallels.
* Non-Numbered blues fall at 1:2 boxes
* Non-Numbered base autos fall at 1:26 boxes

**Calculations**

If there is 1 parallel per box (total parallels for one player represented by x):  

x = 454 + (x/2) + (x/26)

x = 454 + (7x/13)

x - (7x/13) = 454

(6x/13) = 454

x = 454 \* (13/6)

x = \~984 (or actually \~983.67)

**For each player**, this would equate to about:

* 492 non-numbered blue parallels
* 454 numbered parallels
* 38 base autos

**Extrapolating this to all 25 rookies,** there would be **24,600** boxes (984 \* 25), which could also mean 24,600 copies of each base rookie card.

**If these odds are correct, it would equal out to:**

* Non-Numbered Blue Parallel - 1 of 2 boxes (50.00%)
* Gold Parallel #'d to 249 - 1 of 4 boxes (25.30%)
* Orange Parallel #'d to 99 - 1 of 10 boxes (10.06%)
* Red Parallel #'d to 50 - 1 of 20 boxes (5.08%)
* Regular Auto Parallel - 1 of 26 boxes (3.86%)
* Green Parallel #'d to 25 - 1 of 40 boxes (2.54%)
* Blue Auto Parallel #'d to 25 - 1 of 40 boxes (2.54%)
* Black Parallel #'d to 5 - 1 of 196 boxes (0.51%)
* Black Auto Parallel #'d to 1 - 1 of 1000 boxes (0.10%)

Anyways, I appreciate any thoughts.  I may also see if I can back into any guesses on this year's Series 2 cards.

Estimated Print Run and Odds for 2025-26 Upper Deck NHL Star Rookies Box Set