Box Office Forecasts
As someone who's a big fan of the book and a box office nerd, I thought I'd consolidate and give context to the various to the box office forecasts on this film. I've seen a few posts get made on the opening weekend predictions for this film. There's now a lot out there and all looking promising, but it still can be confusing.
Some top end comments:
-Generally, all box office forecasts that are put out are for the domestic box office, which covers US and Canada. You might see some that cover internationally.
-Most forecasts cover the opening weekend, not the entire run. The first weekend is more of a measure of the movie hype, which we can assess in advance. The total gross then depends on the films reception, which we need to see how that rolls out.
-Forecasts are just that. They are based on metrics, like presales, social media activity and other information.
-Lots of people will start saying that the film needs to make a certain amount to be profitable. I would ignore that. We get clarity on box office numbers, but we have no idea on how rhe back end accounting works. People use various metrics and multipliers, but its all a guessing game. Personally, just getting close to The Martian would be a huge feat, and that's looking more and more likely.
Key box office forecasts
Industry trades
Deadline: $50M
https://deadline.com/2026/02/box-office-project-hail-mary-ready-or-not-2-forecast-1236738043/
Forecast was published almost 2 weeks ago and already out of date. Deadline is notorious for lowballing estimates. They generally report what studios give them, who are motivated to downplay estimates so when they come in above it feels like an over performance.
Variety: no forecast yet. Variety is the other major trade publication that will put out a forecast for bigger movies.
Box Office Sites
Box Office Theory (Shawn Robbins) - $61M https://boxofficetheory.com/box-office-forecasts-tracking-project-hail-mary-lee-cronins-the-mummy-disney-pixar-hoppers-previews/
Shawn is the most reliable major tracker in my opinion. He puts a weekly update out ajd and currently has a range of $45M to $65M. But the forecast has trended up since his first forecast on it, so that's the biggest takeaway. He also says that upward potential is there.
Box Office Pro - $70-85M
They've recently updated their forecast up. They also do weekly updates. Shawn Robbins used to be affiliated with this site before striking out on his own and I've found their forecasts less reliable since that point, so I trend more towards him.
Social media/Individual accounts
Jatinder: He's a prominent tracker that has access to a lot of forecast information. He'll be more active closer to release date, but when he puts a number out for predictions, they're usually rock solid.
Empire City: He also has some access to ticket sale data, and posts actively. He's prone to hyperbole but to his credit, does capture some trends early that he sees. Just take his info with a grain of salt.
Box Office Theory Forums - The box office theory site runs a message board where numerous people track and post their results. I'm one of them but I'm pretty small scale, but this is the place where you'll get various daily updates and see how forecasts are trending. Lots of positive signs in this thread, aligning with the various formal forecasts that we're seeing.
If people do check out that thread, I'd just encourage people to follow the rules. There's threads for general discussion and ones for the actual numbers.
I'll end to say that my fear for this film was something in the $30-40M range, and squeak to $100M domestic. Something similar to what the Dungeons and Dragons movie did in around the same time slot a few years ago despite strong reviews. This doesn't seem the case here. Its already well ahead of that in even the lower end of forecasts.
Posted Mar 8, 2026, 1:16 PM UTC