So I've been following this conflict pretty closely and something has been bothering me that I can't find anyone properly explaining.

Everyone keeps saying Iran is breaking. Trump has said it seven times in the last week. The narrative is basically — sustained pressure, Iran collapses, done.

But then I look at what Iran is actually *doing* and I genuinely cannot make the two things fit together.

A few things that are stuck in my head:

— Israel's emergency system just confirmed their early warning network now gives roughly 60 to 90 seconds notice instead of 15 to 25 minutes. They told their own citizens this officially.

— Iran announced a new Supreme Leader *during* active combat operations. My instinct was that sounds like chaos. But the more I thought about it the more I'm not sure that's the right read.

— The Strait of Hormuz satellite imagery from this week versus two months ago looks like two completely different planets.

I'm not a military analyst. I'm just someone who reads a lot and something about the mainstream framing of this feels off to me.

Has anyone else been following this closely? What am I missing here?

Israel just texted 7 million citizens that their missile defense system can no longer protect them. Been down a rabbit hole on this for 3 days and something isn't adding up.