The United States is considering arming Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in neighboring Iraq, according to reports, with the aim of fomenting an uprising inside the Islamic republic.

The possibility of the United States supplying weapons to the exiled groups and supporting potential cross-border ground attacks in western Iran comes amid a joint US-Israeli aerial campaign against Tehran, launched on February 28.

US President Donald ⁠Trump on March 5 encouraged the over half a dozen exiled Iranian Kurdish groups to attack Iran. "I think it's wonderful that they want to do that. I'd be all for it," he said.

Tehran has responded by intensifying attacks on camps and bases operated by the Iranian Kurdish groups in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region.

Trump appeared to walk back his comments on March 8, telling reporters that he does "not want the Kurds to go into Iran" because the war is "complicated enough as it is."

RFE/RL spoke to Wladimir van Wilgenburg, an on-the-ground reporter and analyst specializing in Kurdish affairs who said the Iranian Kurdish groups are deeply cautious about becoming entangled in the US-Israeli war on Iran.

**RFE/RL: What considerations do you think these Kurdish groups are weighing before launching their offensive into Iran?**

**Wladimir van Wilgenburg:** These Kurdish groups will not launch an offensive if they don't have any guarantees for any form of political recognition. We saw with the Kurds in Syria that the US didn't give any promises. After there was no more need for them to fight ISIS \[the Islamic State extremist group\], they were abandoned, and the US administration worked with the new authorities in Damascus.

The Kurds in Iran don't want a repetition of that scenario where they basically fight the IRGC \[Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps\] and, when the war is over, the US administration says it was just a transactional relationship and 'bye-bye.'

**RFE/RL: Do you think there is going to be an incursion?**

**Van Wilgenburg:** There has been no incursion. The gist \[of it\] is that the Kurdish groups are preparing for such an offensive and have had some talks with US officials. I don't know on what level, whether government or military, but they're just in an exploration phase of relations.

I don't think there have been any decisions so far to go inside \[Iran\]. We also saw statements by Iraqi Kurdish officials saying they don't want to be part of this regional war \[and are\] calling for calm. Today, there was a statement by a senior defense official in Iran threatening Iraqi Kurdistan, saying if any of those groups cross, the retaliation will be very heavy.

**RFE/RL: If they do eventually launch an offensive, what is the ultimate goal? Is it regime change, or a push for an independent Kurdistan?**

**Van Wilgenburg:** The Kurds in Iran have always had a historical focus on autonomy. They are not focused on an independent Kurdish state. What they want is a federal Iran with democracy, secularism, and autonomy for Iranian Kurds.

There's no goal to separate. Their idea is to go only to the Kurdish areas -- not like in Syria, where Kurdish forces went to non-Kurdish areas like Deir al-Zor and Raqqa. The idea is to create a sort of safe haven for the Iranian opposition.

Currently, there are calls for defections \[from the state\] and protests \[against the authorities\], but there's no safe haven for the opposition to go to. It would be similar to how the Iraqi Kurdish opposition was hosted in \[Iran's\] Kurdistan Province in the 1990s.

**RFE/RL: Regarding Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), if Iranian Kurds decide to launch an incursion, would the KRG have the power or the desire to stop them?**

**Van Wilgenburg:** Most of the bases for these Iranian Kurdish parties are in \[the regional capital\] Erbil and Sulaymaniyah Province, so they are quite dependent on the KRG's tolerance. One reason they are tolerated is the understanding that they would not carry out armed action.

There was also an agreement between Baghdad and Tehran in 2023 to disarm these parties, which is why some camps are currently empty. However, you have groups who are not dependent on the KRG because they control their own areas in the mountains. The other parties are very close to urban areas in the Kurdistan region and are more restricted.

**RFE/RL: Were those groups actually disarmed as part of that 2023 agreement?**

**Van Wilgenburg:** There were a lot of conflicting media reports about that in the Kurdish media, but there has been no official confirmation.

**RFE/RL: Given the history, how wary are these groups of working with the United States as a partner?**

**Van Wilgenburg:** They are worried it could be a transactional relationship, so they prefer guarantees. They have their own issues with the Islamic republic, but they aren't going to risk a fight if they would lose everything.

History shows this: The Mahabad Republic \[a short-lived and unrecognized Kurdish state\] collapsed after Soviet support ended, and after the 1979 revolution, \[Islamic republic founder Ruhollah\] Khomeini launched a military operation against the Kurds after they had taken control of their areas.

They fear a new centralist government in Tehran might do the same. They want guarantees that it will be a federal state, similar to the relationship between the Kurdistan region and the central government in Baghdad.

**RFE/RL: Do the Kurds currently have the weaponry to cause significant trouble for the Islamic republic?**

**Van Wilgenburg:** Their numbers are not that large, but the situation can change quickly. In Syria, the Kurdish groups started small and grew into the SDF \[Syrian Defense Forces\], which is over 100,000-strong. If they go inside and get US air support and weapons, it would be very easy to crush \[Iran's\] defenses in Kurdish-majority areas.

Most IRGC and Basij \[paramilitary\] soldiers there are not native to the area. If Iran doesn't control the airspace, it will be very difficult for them to hold those areas, even with their advanced drones and ballistic missiles. Kurdish officials say they could take these areas in a very short period if there is a US decision to support them.

**RFE/RL: Is there any truth to reports that the United States or Israel are already arming these groups?**

**Van Wilgenburg:** There is a lot of speculation based on anonymous sources. On the ground, you don't see any new weapons. The fighters still have their old Kalashnikovs. There are no physical or public signs yet. But logically, if there is a decision to support them, they will be armed.

The US did that with the Iraqi opposition, the Kurds in Syria, and via CIA programs for other rebels. Such programs could be repeated, but there are no signs of those arms in the hands of Iranian Kurds yet.

Wladimir Van Wilgenburg: Kurdish Groups Need US 'Guarantees' Before Iran Offensive | "These Kurdish groups will not launch an offensive if they don't have any guarantees for any form of political recognition. We saw with the Kurds in Syria that the US didn't give any promises."