Future outlook for the Senators

This is going to be a longer post so I apologize but it’s something that has been on my mind and I’ve done some research that I would like to share to create a discussion. Before any of that this doesn’t have anything to do with the outcome of the remainder of this season. It has been talked about at length but still needs to be said. Senators have played great hockey for most of this year and their play does not reflect their position in the standings considering the PDO “luck” this season. Now to get into it.

I have seen over the past month or so discussions about what the Senators should do going forward to improve the roster. It has created a debate about draft picks, prospect cupboard, and trading for pieces. Everyone can have their opinion on what they would prefer and I want to share mine.

I believe that the Senators going forward should look to trade picks or pieces (prospects or roster players) to upgrade their roster. They have two holes that can be filled to upgrade the team taking it to serious contender status. Those two holes being a top six shoot first mentality winger and a top four right handed defence man. This is something I believe everyone agrees on as well.

I do not believe that the Senators should be looking to fill those positions through the draft. For starters let’s take the RHD. They have two players already in the system in Yakemchuk and Hensler. Yakemchuk being the closer to NHL ready probably as early as next season. That is the number one option. Hensler looks to be a little further away possibly 2-3 years before he’s a consideration. By that point Yakemchuk could already be 2-3 years into his career making Hensler redundant. If they were to draft that position that player is probably 4+ years away which is too long to wait especially with these guys closer.

Now for a top six forward that player would still likely be 3+ years away from making an impact. That’s too long to wait as well especially considering the players that will expire. Taking a break from the whole discussion is the contract for Brady Tkachuk. This will be a determining factor on which direction the Senators decide to go. If they have conversations with him and he makes it known that he is gone when he expires with 0 chance to re sign then they need to move him. If he says he wants to re sign even if it’s not max term say for even 4-5 years then the window for contending is defined. You have 7-8 years to go for the cup and likely their best chance they will have.

Back to drafting. The Sens if they are as good as we believe and continue to get better we know that their picks will likely fall in the late first. From data collected from 2010-2020. The odds of a player drafted in the late first round turning into a first line player is 9.6% and second line player is 13.5%. Combined for a top six forward 23.1%. Bust rate is exactly 50% not even being on the roster.

Every single year they attempt to make a draft choice it comes with the risk of that player being a waste in first round pick value for trading. Now with that being said I’m not against drafting players. But I believe first that the two holes on the roster need to be filled before they look at the draft route.

Drafting is important for laying out the foundation of the roster to even have the potential to contend. As far as the Sens they have done their part setting the foundation. Brady, Timmy, Sandy, Chabby, among other pieces like Greig, Pinto, Kleven, They now need to add to that. Waiting for the prospect cupboards to fill up isn’t the answer. It’s about making moves to bring in good pieces. Now I know everyone will say “they tried that it didn’t work with Debrincat and Chychrun”. When you have a competent GM that only trades for big pieces that are locked up with term is how you build it out. Not trading for guys that you have no idea if they will sign or not. Especially in Ottawa.

Looking across the league at the most successful teams it has followed this model. Teams like Tampa Bay, Colorado, Vegas, Pittsburg (little longer ago), Florida. Yes there are teams that have went the pure drafting route like Dallas but that requires beating the odds and hitting on draft selections. Even with a team like Dallas they still have made trades along the way to contend. In addition to drafting and trades it’s about managing contracts and signing players. Teams do have added advantages over Ottawa in this department but a while back before the tax free states they were once wastelands that players did not want to go to. Winning and contending fixes that. I believe if Ottawa makes a couple decent playoff runs teams will be more attracted to go there.

These are my thoughts and I would be happy to go more in depth having discussions in the comments regarding more specifics.