What Yield Decision Rule are good but not elite colleges using?

The posts about some rejections with stats way above the middle 50 have me wondering what admissions officers at good places are doing.Not elite, I assume Stanford and Harvard assume people that get in will attend. Like how important is it that they are correct with yield predictions. I think pre common app this was less of an issue. In the 90s I applied to 1 R1 flagship oos and it was the only place I applied. Kind of dumb but figured I would get in and did. That seems crazy now given the yield games it seems like colleges are playing. There is so much uncertainty. Do people try to signal beyond early decision?

For instance, my daughter in 2 years may apply to my Alma mater (my wife and I have 5 degrees from this place) so if my daughter meets stats, they should feel good about her actually accepting the offer, do colleges look to anything else? Like what’s in their model. Holistic acceptances seem too noisy for me to back out what exactly is going on.