It’s important to remember that this years change in voting system will mean more abstaining than usual

We already know most Oscar voters only vote for Above the Line categories & their respective guild. This year, if you don’t actually watch every nominated film or find loopholes to vote for - say, Best Live Action Short - you won’t be allowed to vote for that category

This is the first year of the Honor Voting System, so except wild surprises in the smaller categories like crafts, Song, shorts, etc as presumably - they will be voting based on merit instead of popularity of the film

Basically what i’m trying to say is that 80% of people voting for Original Song this year actually watched the Diane Warren doc. Always keep an eye on Diane.