We ran a suburb-level analysis of public housing concentration vs property growth across all of Australia. Here's what we can share.
We've been building property analytics tools at HtAG for a while now, and we just completed a research project that I think is genuinely useful for anyone making investment decisions.
The question was simple: does public housing concentration affect long-term capital growth, and if so, at what point?
The short answer: yes, and the relationship is more structured than most people assume.
We analysed suburbs across all 8 states/territories, looking at PH concentration rates against 5-year growth, 10-year growth, yield, IRSAD decile, and our own RCS scoring methodology. The full analysis produced a whitepaper with 12 charts and a register of 313 suburbs that have identifiable structural growth barriers.
What I can say publicly:
→ The growth impact isn't gradual — there are specific breakpoints
→ The commonly used socio-economic index (IRSAD) is a lagging indicator and misses important dynamics
→ Some of these suburbs still get recommended by algorithms that don't account for this variable
→ The pattern holds across states, though the severity differs
What I can't share here is the actual data, the suburb list, or the specific thresholds — that's exclusive to our Pro subscribers because frankly, it took a lot of work to produce and it's the kind of edge that has real dollar value.
If you're interested in this kind of analysis: htag.com.au
Happy to discuss the methodology or the general concept in the comments.
Posted Mar 8, 2026, 8:12 PM UTC