Vail

Vail Resorts' recent financial performance has indeed shown **declines** in key metrics, particularly in fiscal 2026 (which runs from August 2025 to July 2026), exacerbating criticisms of its business model amid challenges like poor weather, softening pass sales trends, and broader industry pressures.

### Recent Earnings Declines (Fiscal 2026)

The most striking recent results came from **Q2 fiscal 2026** (ended January 31, 2026), reported on March 9, 2026:

- **Revenue**: $1.08 billion, down 5.3% year-over-year (from ~$1.14 billion), missing analyst expectations by about $30 million.

- **Net income**: $210 million, down from $244.4 million the prior year.

- **Resort Reported EBITDA**: $421.3 million, down from $459.7 million.

- **Skier visits** (season-to-date through early March 2026): Down 11.9% overall, with visitation drops as high as 13-20% in some periods due to historically low snowfall in the Rockies (described as the worst in over 30 years, with warm temperatures limiting terrain).

- Ancillary revenue also fell: Ski school down 8.2%, dining 8.6%, retail/rental 5.7%.

This led Vail to **cut its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance** significantly:

- Net income now expected at $144–$190 million (down from prior guidance of ~$201–$276 million, and below analyst estimates around $237 million).

- Resort Reported EBITDA: $745–$775 million (down from earlier expectations of $842–$898 million), implying a lower margin (~26.4% at midpoint).

These declines stem largely from **weather** (snow drought hurting visitation and on-mountain spending), but they compound longer-term issues like pass sales softness. For context:

- North American pass sales for the 2025/2026 season showed a ~2% unit decline (though dollars up ~3% from price increases).

- Earlier periods (e.g., fiscal Q1 2026) saw a wider net loss ($186.8 million vs. $173.3 million prior year) amid higher marketing costs to boost passes.

### Comparison to Prior Year (Fiscal 2025)

Fiscal 2025 (ended July 2025) was stronger:

- Net income: $280 million (up from $231.1 million in fiscal 2024).

- Resort Reported EBITDA: $844.1 million (up slightly from $825.1 million, though including some one-time costs).

The shift to declines in 2026 highlights vulnerability—despite the Epic Pass model's prepaid revenue buffer (which cushioned lift revenue drops to only 3.6% season-to-date despite bigger visitation hits), bad snow years expose weaknesses in ancillary spending and overall growth.

### How This Ties Back to Criticisms of "Destroying" the Industry

These earnings struggles fuel the narrative that Vail's aggressive pricing, consolidation, and pass-heavy model may be backfiring:

- High prices deter casual visitors, reducing resilience when weather hurts.

- Overcrowding complaints from pass holders may contribute to softer demand in some markets.

- Declining visits and revenue pressure could signal a "reckoning" for the duopoly model (Vail + Alterra), with potential long-term impacts on skier participation if affordability and experience issues persist.

That said, Vail points to cost efficiencies (e.g., Resource Efficiency Transformation plan), planned investments (like $215–$220 million in capital for 2026), and pricing strategies as ways to recover. The company still maintains strong liquidity and continues dividends/share repurchases. However, the recent downturn—driven by uncontrollable weather but amplified by structural critiques—has many skiers and investors questioning sustainability.

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