First Solar vs other renewable energy plays - is the domestic manufacturing moat real or overstated?
Been doing a deep dive on First Solar (FSLR) and the thing that keeps coming up is their thin-film cadmium telluride technology vs the dominant Chinese polysilicon supply chain. The IRA domestic content bonuses seem to create a legitimate structural advantage for them that most analysts agree is defensible for at least the next 3–5 years. But I've seen some bears argue the margin premium will compress as global supply normalises. A few things I'm trying to get my head around: 1. How much of their Q3 earnings premium was IRA-driven vs organic margin improvement? 2. Their order book is massive but at what average selling price were those contracts locked in? 3. The cadmium telluride panels have lower efficiency ratings than silicon, is that actually a problem at utility scale? Anyone done serious work on this? Would love to hear views on the competitive moat thesis.
Posted Mar 14, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC