ANA Holdings is now Japan's largest Cargo Carrier, and a second order beneficiary of the Iran Conflict and the AI Data Centre Race

For value investors with a 12-18 month horizon, I think ANA Holdings (TYO: 9202 / ALNPY OTC) looks really interesting right now.

ANA completed a full acquisition of Nippon Cargo Airlines (NCA) in August 2025, adding 16 freighters and ~¥139B in annual revenue. NCA was acquired below book value and at a trough price, allowing ANA to get strong assets (freighters and new dedicated shipping routes) at a discounted price.

I believe the market still prices ANA as a pure passenger airline getting hit by $100/barrel oil prices from the Iran conflict. Though that is true, after the NCA acquisition, ANA is now Japan's largest combination carrier, with new transpacific freighter routes that largely bypass the Middle East disruption. In the first order, its margins will definitely take a hit, but looking at second order effects and the rising demand for air cargo this will have, ANA has the potential to benefit from structural macro shifts.

Why I think this is compelling for value investors specifically:

- Good company at a discount. ¥1.2T in liquidity, 31.2% equity ratio, ~2% dividend yield, BoJ rate at 0.75%.

- Hidden growth engine. Cargo was ~6-7% of revenue pre-NCA. The acquisition meaningfully boosts this, with structural tailwinds from supply chain disruptions and Japan's semiconductor reshoring (TSMC Kumamoto, Rapidus).

- Not a growth story. This isn't about multiple expansion. Pure cargo players don't really trade at premium multiples compared to passenger airlines. It's more about how the market underestimates forward earnings from what was once a small cargo segment.

Main risks:

- Fuel costs (The company hedges only 35%, definitely going to have to tank some hits in the short run, but strong balance sheet helps to push past this)

- NCA integration execution

Overall, I think its a good company with strong fundamentals that is undergoing an undervalued business transition. In the next 2-3 years, macro tailwinds such as structural shift in preference towards air freight and Japan's semiconductor reshoring help to realize this.

For a much more detailed report with sources : https://open.substack.com/pub/601capital/p/ana-holdings-how-the-iran-war-may?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer

What do y'all think? Happy to discuss and all advice is appreciated!

Disclaimer:
This is not investment advice. Do your own research.