Oscar Chances: Best Supporting Actor - Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Stellan Skarsgård scored his first career nomination (really?  How is that possible?) for Sentimental Value, as a crotchety, recalcitrant film director who seems to be able to communicate with everyone except his two adult daughters. 

His character is a classic answer to the question "Why don't filmmakers explain their films?".  As he clearly demonstrates, filmmakers are better at communicating through film, not verbally.  It's why they are filmmakers in the first place -- even when it's excruciating or fruitless or criticized.  If they could express themselves through spoken words, most would gladly save themselves a lot of time and energy. 

Skarsgård conveys the pain and frustration that bubbles up when he tries to talk to his daughters, only to make things worse.  But when he makes a film, when he writes a script, they finally begin to understand, in a way that feels earned and not corny to the audience.  (He's equally bad at gift-giving: Presenting his young grandson with a DVD of the horrifically graphic film Irreversible may be the comedic moment of the year.) 

It's not a loud performance by Skarsgård; he leaves a lot of subtext merely hinted at.  In a wide-open field, Skarsgård will be the, yes, sentimental favorite for many.  He's shifted in and out of the lead with prognosticators over the past few months, and he's slipped back heading into the home stretch.  But I'm going with my gut (which has failed me every time) and picking him to win Best Supporting Actor.  (He's also my personal pick for who Should Win.)