   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE

   ARKLATEX NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...

   A widespread damaging wind event with some tornado threat is likely late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest wind damage threat appears to be from northeast Arkansas/western Tennessee to southern Indiana during the evening and overnight hours.

   ...Synopsis...

   A large upper trough will deepen on Sunday as it moves from the Plains toward the MS Valley, with an intensifying mid and upper level jet streak extending from Lake Michigan to northern MS into Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move from IA/MO into northern IL during the day, with further deepening overnight as it pivots into Lower MI. A strong cold front will extend south from the low, from IL into southeast MO and into eastern TX at 00Z. This front will accelerate across the OH, TN, and lower MS Valleys overnight, extending from OH to the FL Panhandle by 12Z Monday.

   A broad zone of gusty southerly winds will exist well ahead of the cold front over much of the region, aided by a mixed boundary layer and 40-60 kt 850 mb winds through the peak heating hours. An initial low-level moist plume will develop from eastern TX across AR and toward the lower OH Valley during the day, with dewpoints above 60F. Continued warm/moist advection will occur during the evening, as the low-level jet becomes very strong, ranging from 50-60 kt over the Gulf Coast states to 75 kt into IN, OH, KY. Dewpoints into the mid 50s F will likely reach across much of IL, IN, and far southern Lower MI.

   As the cold front encounters the developing moisture/instability plume, storms will likely develop from western IL/MO southwestward toward the ArkLaTex by 21Z, with a rapid upscale growth into a squall line/QLCS, peaking in the 00 to 06Z time frame across the heart of the Enhanced Risk area.

   Farther east, a secondary moisture plume will develop across GA and the Carolinas, possibly supporting isolated strong or severe storms across the Piedmont during the late afternoon and again overnight, and perhaps along parts of the coast.

   ...Northeast TX across the MS and OH Valleys and up to IN/OH/Lower MI... 

While instability is likely to be a limiting factor late afternoon and evening, strong large-scale ascent coupled with developing extreme shear profiles will likely result in corridors of damaging winds, with a few tornadoes as well. Shallow convection is likely to develop along the cold front from MO into western AR by early afternoon, with gradual strengthening as the air mass destabilizes. Storms are also expected to develop ahead of the cold front late in the day and into the evening, from southern IL into southeast MO and eastern AR, with increasing wind and tornado risk from IL/IN into western KY, TN, and northeast AR. The front will continue to push rapidly east and southeast overnight, with continued wind and isolated tornado risk from OH to the southern Appalachians. A conditional tornado risk will also exist overnight ahead of the front into AL/GA if cells can develop across the warm sector early Monday.

   ..Jewell.. 03/14/2026

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Day 2 outlook (2:14 am EST)