What are my odds here?

Hi everyone,

I’m starting to build my school list and after looking at MSAR I’m getting a little nervous about my odds. I have a 512 MCAT and 3.71 GPA, and I’m a California resident, white male, not disadvantaged.

I went to a liberal arts school where I was a D3 athlete, won a national championship, and Academic All-American four times. Outside athletics I tried to stay pretty involved on campus. I served on the admissions committee, worked as a peer health educator teaching public health classes to other students, and had some smaller involvement in student government. I also became very involved in a nonprofit chapter on campus supporting families affected by cancer, serving as head of fundraising. Following that experience, I also started a peer-support nonprofit aimed at connecting people dealing with chronic illness so they could support each other.

On the clinical and service side, I’m currently in my gap year working full time as a medical scribe in a GI oncology clinic while also volunteering in hospice.

Research-wise, I spent about a year and a half in a neuroscience lab (~800 hours) but don’t have publications. I’m currently helping with another research project with a physician, though I’m not sure whether that will lead to anything publishable.

In total I have roughly 800 research hours, 1200 clinical hours, and around 1000 hours of volunteering.

My main question is whether my chances are better than my stats alone might suggest, and what tier of medical schools I should realistically be targeting. Of note, I am looking at MD only. Thoughts?