The full timeline of prediction markets: 1800s to today 2026
I made this for myself when I was trying to understand how we got here. Sharing it because I couldn't find a clean version anywhere.
1848 - Chicago Board of Trade opens. Standardized futures contracts for agricultural commodities. First modern market for trading on future outcomes.
1988 - Iowa Electronic Markets launches. First major study showing markets beat polls.
2001 - Tradesports and Intrade launch out of Ireland. Real money, broad markets, growing user base.
2003–2012 - Intrade's golden era. Trades on US elections, Saddam Hussein's capture, celebrity events. Often cited by media.
2013 - CFTC takes action against Intrade. Site shuts down. Users left stranded.
2014 - PredictIt launches under a CFTC no-action letter. Limited to small bets, US political markets.
2018 - Augur launches on Ethereum. First major decentralized prediction market.
2020 - Polymarket launches on Polygon. Real USDC, clean UI, fast resolution.
2021 - Kalshi applies to the CFTC to operate as a regulated exchange.
2023 - CFTC tries to block Kalshi from offering political contracts. Kalshi sues back.
2024 - Kalshi wins the lawsuit. First regulated prediction market for political events in US history.
2024–2025 - Prediction markets explode. Polymarket hits billions in volume. Media starts citing market prices as legitimate data. We are here.
Anything on this timeline you want me to go deeper on?
Posted Mar 14, 2026, 7:04 AM UTC