If Timothée Chalamet doesn’t win, it won’t be because of his campaign.

I’ve seen so many comments about how he ruined his chances for an Oscar by putting his foot in his mouth one too many times. So let me just stress this: it won’t affect his chances of winning. So if he doesn’t win, it won’t be because he himself messed it up. It will be because a majority of voters preferred a different performance.

Yes, campaigning is becoming annoying, and it matters in terms of who is even aware of your movie or performance. But those actors aren’t running for office. Saying something stupid will not lose them the Oscar. People have won Oscars despite being accused of assault. You know why? Because they gave the best performance that year. Do you think voters would say: „His acting was great… oh, but he doesn’t like opera!“

So, again: if he loses, it’s because at least one of his competitors were deemed better.