The Sudan Gurung effect,

In general terms and views, we can discard everything but if we're focusing on mathematical and ML term/point of view, we should understand or try to understand the pattern behind it.

Sudan may not be an foreign agent/asset but all the behavior shown by him looks immature, against the nation indirectly. we have a tendency to adjust our views accordingly and define and explain too.

If there's a man walking towards a pond with 12 hungry crocodiles, though there's a pond with just 3 crocodiles, to reach the boat doesn't indicate the both pond are equally dangerous, without any extra strings attached. There lies the probability that the man may came alive out of the pond with 12 crocodiles but not with 3. And it doesn't mean the 12 crocodile pond decision isn't stupidity. Sudan is following the same path. Anger and ego are essential for human evolution and survival doesn't mean they're perfect and universal in every situation. Where the party with huge voters support, and emotional attachment still holds the power for the damage, it's too soon for the government to investigate Oli and so on.

A logical human can't deny that the administration was right to shoot anyone who's planning to burn the parliament. Frustration can't weight as much as burning the body of constitution or such attempt. I can't disagree with the lack of mistakes, co-ordination between authorities, failed calculation and prediction of protestors and so on. I can't disagree with the corruption, lack of proper governance, misuse of power by UML, NC, NCP, RPP, RSP ( not equally but definitely), and it's widely negative impact on Nepalese peoples, society and economy but the burning and attacking attempt of parliament burning was definitely wrong.

It can be argued that protestors, students were misled, didn't knew it was restricted zone, and connected with/switched mob mentality but that was wrong. You can't deny your crime stating you didn't knew the law as ignorance of law is no excuse.

What would have happened if the security professionals have failed to save the parliament, and not an single protestors have been died? The oli government and government officials were criticized heavily, legal actions for all responsible authority, from lekhak to cdo to all. What would happen if tomorrow any 4000 peoples from karnali province or CK raut and team from madhesh or some MNO's from koshi province held a protest and move to burn shinghadurbar? How would they be defined and seen? Would Sudan, Balen, Rabi or anyone, me, you would do?

I don't have any answer for this. Nor I have any explanation for the 19 death and their parents in first day, and other's from first day and second day. I can't justify the deaths, nor the shooting. The truth is history glorify the winner and survivors. The writer holds the pen to narrate the story. Until the lion learns to write, every story will glorify the hunter. If that protest went down as pro-monarchist protest, Oli would have been the hero. In fact, nobody remembers Suresh Rajak and Sabin Maharjan. A responsible government can't let a nation to bring back the same monarchy which was thrown out and discarded some 18 years ago, which is republic. A responsible, elected government can't let parliament be destroyed. It'll use all the possible and necessary measures to protect it. It doesn't mean shooting those students in school/college dress. There's a high probability that there was some huge infiltration, planning and intervention by other powers, but it's highly likely.

The American's CIA, Indian's RAW, French's DGSI and DGSE, Uk's MI6, NATO have the declassified and publicly available archives and known history of toppling the government. And the Nepalese's recent adoption and access to social media and resources helped to establish and push the anti-national agenda's and mentality among peoples too, contributing the deaths and heavy power use in the protest.

It's been more than 6 months and balen is already elected as PM, and Sudan as HM, but the incident is grey in intellectual and philosophical point of view and discussion.

It may end up as the finest and strongest foundation in future, but it seems disastrous, and suicidal in today's condition. Decisions in a democracy are made not on the basis of knowledge or conscience, but on the basis of pleasing the feelings and desires of the people. Democracy is still a weak system where popularity matters more than merit, though it is the best voting and electing system we have.

Posted Mar 27, 2026, 8:09 PM UTC

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