Would you gamble on AA SWU or take Delta Premium Select

Trying to pick a flight from PVG → BNA and looking for some advice.

Flight is Friday, June 26, and I have to fly on this specific date, so I can’t move travel days around to chase upgrade space.

Work will pay for Premium Economy, not Business.
I have AA Executive Platinum, Delta Gold, and 2 AA Systemwide Upgrades (SWUs).

Options I’m looking at:

American

• AA 128 PVG → DFW (787-9)
• AA 1500 DFW → BNA (737-800)
• Departs 5:20 PM, arrives 10:07 PM
• Shorter total travel time
• No Premium Economy available on this routing, but I could try to use an SWU to upgrade PVG–DFW to Business

Delta

• DL 280 PVG → SEA (A350-900)
• DL 815 SEA → BNA (A220)
• Departs 5:30 PM, arrives 11:59 PM
• Longer total travel time and long layover in SEA
• Can book Premium Select and Comfort.

So the decision is basically:
AA with EXP + SWU upgrade attempt to Business on the long leg
vs
Delta Premium Select guaranteed seat but longer travel time

If this were you, which would you pick?