[SPC Update] Severe Weather Outlook (Issued: 2:57 PM CDT, April 01) | Today: Enhanced | Tor: 5% (CIG 1)

Full Forecast and Technical Discussion: SPC Convective Outlooks

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Day 1 Outlook — Issued: 2:57 PM CDT, April 01

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 1, 2:00 PM CST — Mar 2, 6:00 AM CST

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY: Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.

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Day 2 Outlook — Issued: 12:30 PM CDT, April 01

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 2, 6:00 AM CST — Mar 3, 6:00 AM CST

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

SUMMARY: Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear probable across parts of eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin, northern and central Illinois late Thursday afternoon and evening. Some of these tornadoes may become fast moving and strong.

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Day 3 Outlook — Issued: 2:26 PM CDT, April 01

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 3, 6:00 AM CST — Mar 4, 6:00 AM CST

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

SUMMARY: An extensive squall line may develop across parts of the east central Great Plains late Friday afternoon, and perhaps become capable of producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a risk for tornadoes while advancing toward to the middle Mississippi Valley and southeastern Great Plains through Friday evening.

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Day 4-8 Extended Outlook

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 4, 6:00 AM CST — Mar 9, 7:00 AM CDT

Some degree of severe thunderstorm potential is expected to persist through the upcoming weekend across portions of the Great Lakes/OH Valley and possibly across the Mid-Atlantic. Heading into next week, a combination of building surface high pressure behind a synoptic cold front and the re-establishment of an upper ridge over the West will limit severe weather chances.