What growth rate are you modelling to FIRE, and how are you stress-testing a 2008-style crash in year one?

What growth rate are you modelling between now and FIRE, and how are you planning to handle a 2008-style crash if it happens the year you pull the trigger?

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. Most people I see pick something like 7% real returns and call it a day — but that completely ignores the timing. A 50% drawdown in year one of retirement is catastrophically different to the same crash happening 10 years in, even if your average annual return ends up identical over 30 years.

2008 saw the S&P drop around 37% in a single year. If that lands right as you stop earning, you're selling depressed assets to fund living costs with no salary to wait it out.

Curious how people here are actually thinking about this — are you building in a cash buffer, planning a flexible withdrawal strategy, holding off on FIRE until you hit a higher number, or just accepting the risk?