Are tighter flip margins exposing how loose rehab budgeting still is?

One thing I keep noticing is that ARV is usually the easy part, but rehab budgeting still seems a lot looser than people admit. A lot of it still comes down to rough spreadsheets, contractor texts, limited walkthroughs, and hoping the contingency holds. In a softer market where holding costs and price cuts matter more, that seems a lot riskier than it used to be. Are ya'll seeing flippers in your area get burned more by rehab math now, or is this mostly a problem for people just starting (or newbies)?