The Offseason Scenarios

Hey everyone,

Sorry, this is a long post, but I've been sick and bored this week, and I also wanted to document my thoughts on this pivotal moment for the Leafs and the options that are in front of them in a number of different areas. Ultimately, I believe the idea of a retool is untenable given our circumstances, and I think when you lay it out like this, you will see why that is. I hope some of you will enjoy this breakdown despite it's length and negative tone.

1. First things first, the Leafs need to learn what their draft will look like:.

Most likely scenario right now is forfeiting the pick to Boston

2. After that, they will have to make a decision on a coach:

This may depend on how fast the GM is hired.

There is a lot of potential for further organizational dysfunction with the coaching situation. It's troubling that Pelley is talking to Berube about what the team needs, despite the data showing Berube is an absolutely horrific, laughably bad coach.

But on top of this, Pelley is just now starting the process of finding a firm to start the search for a GM....next week. Estimates say it could be mid-May or even early June before they come to a conclusion. This means that the best coaches will either be off the board by then, or they will be hired by our interim GM(s), which is problematic from the outset and a consistent error our brass makes and uses an excuse to be inactive, delay, and be indecisive (see Dubas given Babcock, Tre given Keefe, Pelley given Shanahan, etc).

3. Then you have management:

A retooling manager is likely going to be one without integrity

I expect them to pick a yes-man who feigns interest in being data centric but is ultimately installed to sell us the idea that they can turn this thing around quickly, despite having no resources or options to achieve this. All the data paints us a declining, aging team with an abysmal defense that has finished bottom 5 in most categories for two full years. The average age of our top 4 is 33.5,

4. Now, as Pronger and many other media pundits have pointed out, everything truly hinges on what Auston Matthews thinks. Right now, Pelley is trying to coordinate a series of hires that will try to convince Matthews to stay.

In my opinion, this is all for nothing unless we win a lottery pick and somehow win some trades with no assets and somehow do well in free agency with no one noteworthy available. And it's problematic to begin with that your outlook involves appeasing a single player no matter what the long term cost to the organization and the fans who support it.

These are the ways a Matthews situation could play out over the next 15 months:

NOTE: These are not suggested returns, just pieces that could be available

Three of four roads with Matthews lead to him leaving anyways, and all three are more probable than everything working out and him agreeing to stay.

5. And so finally, his decision may hinge on the success of our free agency, where I see the following options:

Contract values are estimates

These are the only top-4 and top-6 caliber players currently available, and I do not believe any of them will actually make it to market. I would also add that even if they do, I don't think either of those D are worth the investment, nor do they actually move the needle for our aging defense at all. Essentially all of these guys would immediately become negative-value assets and be difficult to move off of, just like Morgan Rielly.

So all this leaves you with trades - essentially praying that a new competent GM can hoodwink multiple high-end pieces from other GMs with limited pieces to send the other way.

7. Conclusion:

I do not believe a retool can be done, and I think this lays out why pretty clearly. There simply are no real options to achieving it, and even the administerial elements of it - coaching and management - has such a bad timeline already that it is unlikely they can get organized in time to do anything of substance.

I will re-evaluate as each decision unfolds.

What do you think?