[SPC Update] Severe Weather Outlook (Issued: 7:40 AM CDT, April 04) | Today: Slight | Tor: 2% (CIG 1)

Full Forecast and Technical Discussion: SPC Convective Outlooks

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Day 1 Outlook — Issued: 7:40 AM CDT, April 04

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 4, 7:00 AM CST — Mar 5, 6:00 AM CST

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

SUMMARY: Severe storms capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk are expected across parts of the Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio River Valley, mainly this afternoon through early evening. Other more isolated severe storms may occur across the Tennessee Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and eastern part of Texas.

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Day 2 Outlook — Issued: 12:43 AM CDT, April 04

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 5, 6:00 AM CST — Mar 6, 6:00 AM CST

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST....

SUMMARY: Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on Sunday afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic coast.

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Day 3 Outlook — Issued: 2:23 AM CDT, April 04

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 6, 6:00 AM CST — Mar 7, 6:00 AM CST

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

SUMMARY: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday in south-central Florida and over parts of the Desert Southwest, but no severe threat is forecast.

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Day 4-8 Extended Outlook

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 7, 6:00 AM CST — Mar 12, 7:00 AM CDT

On Friday and Saturday, a moist and unstable airmass is forecast to be in place over the southern half of Texas, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward across the region. Lift associated with this feature would support scattered thunderstorm development. The greatest severe potential both Friday and Saturday appears to be across south-central Texas, where the models have moderate deep-layer shear and sufficient instability.