Severe discrepancy between amboss score predictor, amboss analysis, and NBME scores

I did several NBME and just did an amboss 200 HY.

Amboss analysis says Exam score estimate 262, Equated percent correct (EPC) 81.5% ​ But My last NBME 11, 13 score was 250, 233. I've ran my all NBME score data (10, 12, 11, 13) and 8 CMS scores to AMBOSS Score predictor with these and various CMS data shows estimated score of 250. Exam is 1 month away.

So I have 3 data points.

1. last NBME 13: 233
2. AMBOSS score predictor: 250 = second-last NBME 11.
3. AMBOSS 'analysis': 262.

All those estimates vary too wildly. I'm weighing on the former two right now. Third 'analysis' seems wildly inflated.

But I want to believe that 'analysis' is my current score xD. What's general consensus about that metric?