Update

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As of 2:00 PM Vanuatu Time (03:00 UTC) on Sunday:

• Satellite imagery analysis reveals that an area of low pressure east of Vanuatu is quickly becoming better organized.
• The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has upgraded this system to a tropical cyclone and has designated it as Cyclone Thirty-one (31P).
• The Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) is also issuing advisories for this system as Tropical Depression 11F.
• Environmental conditions remain favorable for further development as this system moves southeastward.
• This system is likely to thread the needle between Vanuatu and Fiji, with Fiji experiencing gustier winds early next week.

Latest observation

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As of 2:00 PM Vanuatu Time (03:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Observed information

• Current position: 13.8°S 171.8°E
• Forward movement: ESE (130°) at 9 km/h (5 knots)
• Maximum sustained winds: 75 km/h (40 knots) ▲
• Minimum central pressure: 994 millibars (29.35 inches) ▼
• Intensity (SSHWS): Tropical Storm ▲
• Intensity (FMS): Tropical Depression ▲

Relative position

• 533 kilometers (331 miles) east-northeast of Luganville, Espiritu Santo Province (Vanuatu)
• 575 kilometers (357 miles) north-northeast of Port Vila, Shefa Province (Vanuatu)
• 1,099 kilometers (683 miles) north-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia (France)

Official forecasts

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Fiji Meteorological Service

As of 2:00 PM Vanuatu Time (03:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Hour	Date	Time	·	Intensity	·	Winds	·	Lat	Long
·	·	UTC	VUT	BOM	·	knots	km/h	°S	°E
00	05 Apr	00:00	11AM Sun	Tropical Depression		25	45	13.9	171.7
12	05 Apr	12:00	11PM Sun	Tropical Depression	▼	30	55	14.6	172.0
24	06 Apr	00:00	11AM Mon	Tropical Depression		30	55	15.2	172.5
36	06 Apr	12:00	11PM Mon	Cyclone (Category 1)	▲	40	75	15.9	173.0
48	07 Apr	00:00	11AM Tue	Cyclone (Category 2)	▲	50	95	17.0	173.7

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

As of 2:00 PM Vanuatu Time (03:00 UTC) on Sunday:

Hour	Date	Time	·	Intensity	·	Winds	·	Lat	Long
·	·	UTC	VUT	Saffir-Simpson	·	knots	km/h	°S	°E
00	05 Apr	00:00	11AM Sun	Tropical Storm		40	75	13.8	171.8
12	05 Apr	12:00	11PM Sun	Tropical Storm	▲	55	100	14.7	172.1
24	06 Apr	00:00	11AM Mon	Hurricane (Category 1)	▲	65	120	15.4	172.6
36	06 Apr	12:00	11PM Mon	Hurricane (Category 1)	▲	75	140	16.1	173.4
48	07 Apr	00:00	11AM Tue	Hurricane (Category 2)	▲	85	155	17.3	174.1
72	08 Apr	00:00	11AM Wed	Hurricane (Category 2)		85	155	20.9	176.5
96	09 Apr	00:00	11AM Thu	Hurricane (Category 1)	▼	70	130	24.3	179.0
120	10 Apr	00:00	11AM Fri	Tropical Storm	▼	55	100	27.0	179.4

Information sources

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Fiji Meteorological Service

• Homepage
• Tropical cyclone outlook
• Tropical disturbance summary

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (United States)

• Homepage
• Outlook discussion
• Tropical cyclone formation alert (text product)
• Tropical cyclone formation alert (graphical product)

Radar imagery

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• Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

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Floater imagery

Single bandwidth imagery

• Visible:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
• Infrared:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx
• Water vapor:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

• CIMSS
• RAMMB
• Naval Research Laboratory

Regional imagery

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

• Visible (true color)

• Enhanced infrared

• Enhanced upper-level water vapor

Analysis products

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Preliminary best track data

• NCAR Research Applications Laboratory
• U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)

Scatterometer data

• EUMETSAT
• CyclonicWx

Sea-surface temperatures

• NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
• Tropical Tidbits
• CyclonicWx

Model products

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Disturbance-centered guidance

Single-model click-through guidance

• Global Forecast System (GFS; United States): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Europe): Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

Multi-guidance pages

• NCAR
• Tropical Tidbits
• WeatherNerds
• CyclonicWx

Regional single-model guidance

• GFS:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• ECMWF:   Tropical Tidbits · CyclonicWx

• Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM/CMC, Canada):   Tropical Tidbits

• Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Model (ICON; Germany):   Tropical Tidbits

Regional ensemble model guidance

Ensemble member minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP)

• Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (GFS-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) (ECMWF-based): Tropical Tidbits

• Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) (GEM-based): Tropical Tidbits

Ensemble member MSLP and forecast tracks

• GEFS: Weather Nerds

• EPS: Weather Nerds

Other types of model guidance

• Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University

• Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University