Kurds as the last option to resolve the Iran war!

Bakhtiar Ahmad Salih

In modern warfare, it is no longer a question of who has power. Instead, the question has become who can take the war into enemy territory? This change explains the role of the Kurds in the conflict between the United States and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other, but what is surprising is that the Kurds – seen as a pressure card – are likely to become one of the obvious victims.

From Proxy to Geopolitical Gamble

After the outbreak of war on February 28, 2016 by the United States and Israel against Iran, a new phase is emerging: air strikes can no longer settle wars; And to do that, the internal front must be reopened. This is where the Kurdish issue comes into the picture. The idea is simple on the surface: support the opposition forces in East Kurdistan to open a ground front in northwestern Iran and weaken the regime from within. However, this idea is based on a well-known model in international politics called proxy warfare, which means using local forces to achieve strategic goals without direct involvement. But history tells a different story: these wars rarely solve issues... they generally prolong wars and increase casualties.

Kurds as the strongest option

The opposition forces in East Kurdistan have significant strengths including long experience of guerrilla warfare, difficult geography to continue fighting, US support, but on the other hand face important challenges: historical internal divisions, differences of opinion, lack of heavy weapons and reliance on external support. In other words, the Kurds have the potential to achieve great gains in East Kurdistan, but it is difficult to resolve the US-Israeli war against Iran.

Kurdistan Region and remaining neutral

If the opposition parties in East Kurdistan represent a tool to impose power in Iran, then the Kurdistan Region will represent the battlefield against its will. This is the essence of the issue. The Kurdistan Region has tried to show its neutrality in speech and action from the beginning, even openly stated that it does not want to become a party to the war. Since the beginning of the war, the region has been targeted by more than 450 missile and drone attacks on military bases, economic infrastructure, energy facilities and even civilian areas, resulting in many martyrs and wounded. In other words: neutrality has not prevented targeting.

Iran's strategy is to counter through denial

What Iran is doing to the region is not a random reaction, but a strategy based on continuous attacks on the region using low-cost weapons (such as drones), economic targeting (oil and gas stations), and psychological pressure on the population. In other words, Iran does not wait for the threat... it tries to aggress and attack in advance to prevent it. Washington and Tel Aviv: One Goal... Two Different Views Despite their alliance, there is a decisive difference between the two countries. This difference is directly reflected in support for the Kurds in the east: limited support from Washington versus greater encouragement from Tel Aviv, the result? The Kurds are caught between two incompatible strategies.

The real problem of the Kurds, the lack of trust, may not be the biggest challenge facing the Iranian Kurds today, but uncertainty. Past experiences — especially in Syria — have left profound uncertainty: Can U.S. support be trusted? This can be termed as the dilemma of lack of confidence in US support, meaning a domestic character relies on external support without any guarantee of sustainability. Can the Kurds change the course of the war? The answer is no, but because the Kurds alone cannot impose a new reality, they can weaken Iran, encourage other ethnic minorities, and create domestic pressure. In other words: the Kurds are not the key to victory... but a tool of pressure.

In the end, who uses whom?

In the end, the real question does not seem to be whether the Kurdish card is used. Instead, who uses whom?

The powers use the Kurds as a tool of pressure.

The Kurds are trying to seize the opportunity to achieve a historic achievement.

Iran uses the region as a counterpoint.

کورد وەک دوا بژاردەى یەکلایی کردنەوەى شەڕی ئێران!