NBIS: $46B backlog secured, but is the 2026 MW ramp achievable?

Nebius has pre-sold capacity to Meta and Microsoft before building it, which eliminates demand risk almost entirely. Financing is largely secured ($3.7B cash, $4.34B convertible notes, $2B from Nvidia already in the bank). Management built Yandex's infrastructure at scale so they're not amateurs.

But here's what I can't resolve: they need to go from 170 MW active at end of 2025 to 800 MW–1 GW connected by Q4 2026 — nearly a 5x increase in 12 months — across 16 sites simultaneously in the US, Finland, France, Israel, and the UK.

The bull case doesn't need Missouri (2028) or Lappeenranta (2027). It needs New Jersey, Israel, Birmingham, and the Béthune/Lille sites to all deliver roughly on schedule this year.

Specific questions for people closer to this than I am:

1. Has anyone seen any ground-level reporting on construction progress at the New Jersey and Birmingham sites specifically? These two are the least publicly documented but carry the most MW weight for 2026.

2. The Israel sites (Masmiyya + Beit Shemesh, 80 MW combined) have hard Q3 2026 delivery dates with Mega DC as the builder — does anyone know if construction is visibly on track?

3. The Béthune/Lille 240 MW site near Paris — this is in EMEA contracted power figures but almost nothing has been reported about actual construction progress. Is this 2026 or quietly slipping to 2027?

4. Customer concentration: Meta + Microsoft represent the majority of the $46B backlog. Has anyone seen any signals — earnings calls, analyst notes, internal leaks — that either company is reconsidering the scale of their Nebius commitments given the broader AI capex debate happening right now?

The MW connected number each quarter is the single leading indicator that tells you which scenario you're in before it shows up in revenue. Curious what people on the ground are seeing.