Global Risks and Technological Transformation: Analytical Review 2026

In 2026, the global security and economic architecture will be shaped by the unprecedented impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and deepening geopolitical fragmentation. The key trend is the dual nature of AI, which 94% of executives consider the primary driver of change, simultaneously strengthening both defense systems and the capabilities of attackers. Geopolitical instability is forcing 91% of the world's largest companies to change their strategies, while trust in governments' ability to protect critical infrastructure is declining (31% are skeptics).

China is undergoing a complex transformation: amid Xi Jinping's extreme consolidation of power, the country faces profound structural challenges, from a housing crisis to demographic decline. The technological standoff with the West is entering a phase of strict legislative regulation (the MATCH Act), threatening global semiconductor supply chains. By 2035, the world could finally fragment into isolated technological blocs ("Fortress Blocks") unless a new consensus is reached through "Techno-Diplomacy."

1. Cybersecurity: The New Era of AI and Systemic Risk

According to the WEF and Accenture report "Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2026," cyberspace has become a clash of high technology and geopolitical ambitions.

Key Indicators and Trends

AI as a Catalyst: 94% of respondents recognize AI as a determining factor. Moreover, 87% cite AI-related vulnerabilities as the fastest-growing risk.

Security Assessment: The share of organizations testing AI tools before deployment increased from 37% (2025) to 64% (2026).

Fraud Explosion: 73% of respondents will have experienced online fraud in 2025. Phishing leads the way (62%).

Supply chains: 65% of large corporations see them as the main threat to their resilience (up from 54% the previous year).

Cyber ​​Inequality and Talent Shortages

The report documents a gap in security between the private sector and other entities: | Sector | Report insufficient cyber resilience | | :--- | :--- | | Non-profit organizations (NPOs) | 37% | | Government agencies | 23% | | Private sector | 11% |

Talent Shortages: The skills shortage is most acute in Latin America (65%) and sub-Saharan Africa (63%).

2. China: Political Consolidation Amid Economic Challenges

The BTI 2026 (Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index) report characterizes the current period in China as a "balancing act" between state control and the need to stimulate the market.

Economic Situation

Despite official GDP growth of 5% for 2024, the economy faces a number of barriers:

A real estate crisis and falling foreign direct investment (FDI).

Record youth unemployment and deflationary pressure.

Demographics: A pension reform has been implemented, raising the retirement age from January 2025.

Political Regime and Security

Xi Jinping secured a third term and consolidated power, emphasizing the priority of national security.

Elite Purges: Removal of Defense Minister Li Shangfu (2023) and Admiral Miao Hua (2024).

Social Control: Strengthening digital surveillance, using AI to monitor content, and implementing a social credit system.

Repression: Ongoing assimilation policies in Xinjiang and Tibet, suppression of civil society in Hong Kong (amendments to Article 23 of the Basic Law in 2024).

Technological Confrontation

China has resorted to retaliatory measures in the "chip war":

Launching an antitrust investigation against Nvidia in late 2024.

Restricting the export of critical minerals and key technologies.

Stimulating domestic production of "core" chips due to US sanctions on advanced semiconductors.

3. Regulation and the Geopolitics of Technology

MATCH Act (USA)

A US legislative initiative (Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware) aims to synchronize export controls with allies.

Goal: Tightening licensing of chip equipment using a "default by default" principle.

Impact on ASML: The law directly affects immersion lithography (DUV) systems. A complete ban on sales and service in China could cost ASML 14-15% of its revenue.

WTO Reform

At the ministerial conference in Cameroon (March 2026), countries agreed to reform the dispute resolution system.

Small economies' position (using Kyrgyzstan as an example): Transparent rules are the only way to protect landlocked countries from protectionism and supply disruptions.

4. World Order Scenarios to 2035

Analysis based on Futuroscope MeaningSystems identifies four possible geopolitical developments.

Scenario

Characteristics

Key Indicators

Block Fortresses

Fragmentation + Order. The world is divided into ecosystems (USA/AUKUS, China/SCO, EU).

Semiconductor export ban (2026), internet isolation (2030).

Split Zone

Fragmentation + Chaos. Collapse of institutions, resource wars, organized crime groups instead of states.

Withdrawal of countries from the UN/WTO, emergence of private armies of megacorporations.

Techno-Diplomacy

Globalization + Order. New cooperation for survival (AI and climate).

Geneva Convention on AI (2026), single digital currency (2035).

Global Impasse

Globalization + Chaos. Interdependence with a complete lack of trust.

Large-scale data leaks paralyzing finances, mass disinformation through AI.

5. New Cyber ​​Threat Vectors (Technical Analysis)

Social Engineering Against Developers

A large-scale campaign against the authors of popular open source libraries (Node.js, Axios) has been detected.

Method: Invitations to fake podcasts or interviews purporting to be from the company "Openfort."

Infection: The meeting link imitates Zoom/Teams, returns an error, and asks to run a console command (curl), which installs malware that steals repo access tokens.

Stealth and Self-Healing

Microsoft warns of an increase in attacks using PHP web shells hidden in cookies.

Mechanism: The malicious code is activated only upon receiving a specific cookie value, remaining silent for security systems.

Resilience: Scripts configure tasks in the scheduler that recreate malicious files if they are deleted.

Protection Recommendations (WAF)

For web application and API protection, we recommend conducting WAF (Web Application Firewall) pilots with a gradual configuration:

Enabling basic mechanisms for obvious threats.

Gradually enabling sensitive rules.

Metric Analysis: Confirmed Incident Rate and False Positive Rate.

Key Quotes

"The cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover in August 2025 disrupted production for five weeks, costing the UK economy $2.5 billion and affecting more than 5,000 suppliers." — Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2026

"Corruption is the greatest threat to the Party's rule." — Xi Jinping (January 2025)

"In conditions of geopolitical turbulence, it is not those who predict the future who survive, but those who are prepared for any scenario." — Strategic Analysis "Geopolitics 2035"