The panic trade is over, now the real trap is the first relief move

Panic was easy to understand. Ceasefire is harder. Oil down, dollar softer, risk-on bounce, all of that is obvious. The real question is whether this is a genuine unwind or just the first relief leg before the market starts doubting the talks again. That’s why the first “calm” move is often more dangerous than the panic move itself. Are you trading the unwind here, or waiting for the market to prove the calm is real?