Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures surge on news of two-week US-Iran ceasefire

Markets really do run on emotion as much as fundamentals. Today’s surge in Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures feels less like a sudden burst of optimism and more like a collective sigh of relief. A two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has temporarily taken a worst-case scenario off the table especially fears around oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices dropping sharply is doing a lot of the heavy lifting here. Lower energy costs ease inflation pressure, which in turn gives equities room to breathe. You’re already seeing that rotation: energy stocks down, while travel, banks, and broader risk assets bounce back.

But this rally feels fragile. It’s based on a pause, not a resolution. The ceasefire is only for two weeks, and underlying geopolitical tensions haven’t disappeared. Markets are pricing in hope not certainty.

So the real question: is this the start of a sustained rebound, or just a relief rally that fades as reality sets back in?

Personally, I’m watching oil, Fed expectations, and headlines out of the Middle East more than anything else right now. Feels like we’re one headline away from either continuation… or reversal.