Saw a post mentioning Tom Lee, then just watched one of his recent presentation...

Tom Lee recently laid out his case for the next six months, and his framework is actually solid: we have survived 7 market black swans since 2020, with oil stays elevated, private credit is quietly cracking, and enterprise software is trying to find a bottom.

His conclusion, though, was basically to hide in mega-cap banks to ride out the private credit stress, such as JPM.

But if you look at the actual data he presented, I think the math points somewhere completely different. He noted that massive AI capital expenditure has to continue, otherwise the entire market narrative breaks down. But what he missed is the physical ceiling.

The bottleneck in tech right now is no longer getting the chips. Recent reports has pointed out that the data center buildout in 2026 is being canceled/delayed due to power infra/parts. The investment thesis should shift to those who provides the power distribution, the switchgear, the liquid cooling to keep those data centers from melting. You can have all the Nvidia GPUs in the world, but if you cannot power them, they are just expensive paperweights.