What’s actually going on with the oil markets? Conflicting info everywhere

I’m trying to understand what’s really happening with the current Iran–US negotiations and how it could impact the oil market, but the news flow has been super confusing and often contradictory.

On one hand, there are reports about possible negotiations and proposals, but then other sources say the positions of Iran and the US are still very far apart. For example, Iran seems to be insisting on uranium enrichment rights and possibly control or leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, while those both seem like non-starters for the US and gulf nations

There were also claims floating around that Trump agreed to irans “10-point plan,” but that now appears to be false or at least misreported.

So I’m trying to piece together what realistic scenarios even look like at this point:

• Is there any chance of a meaningful agreement, or are we just heading toward prolonged war
• How likely is it that negotiations actually happen in the first place
• and If talks fail, what are the most probable outcomes for US, its pretty clear nukes and energy destruction are empty threats, only thing i could come up with is island invasions?