How much can property taxes realistically change year to year in Dallas??

I bought my house in 2020 in North Dallas and at the time I felt like I did a pretty thorough job running the numbers. Mortgage felt comfortable, I had a buffer for maintenance and I knew property taxes would go up over time, but I assumed it would be gradual and somewhat predictable

The first year was pretty much in line with expectations. But since then, it feels like the total cost of owning has been harder to forecast than I thought. Between appraisal increases, tax rate changes and insurance also going up, the “fixed” cost of owning doesn’t feel that fixed anymore.
This year I checked my appraisal again and it went up, but when I look at actual comps nearby, it doesn’t feel like homes are selling at the same pace anymore. So now I’m trying to understand what actually drives the tax bill year to year

Is it mostly the appraised value? Or do rate changes at the city/school level end up having just as much impact?

Does this eventually stabilize or is it normal for it to feel a bit unpredictable every year? I’m trying to set realistic expectations going forward