Trying to win war against Rumburg but keep losing

So I’ve basically gone reformer/centrist, I completed my reforms with no problem, got Bluds to like me, didn’t ally with east or west but did accept Constantan ships for some aid and allied with Agnolia but didn’t accept their claims on Heljiland. Didn’t join operation Bear Trap, economy was stable until turn 10 where it goes down rapidly I think due to my government’s debt. I shot down the Rumburgian plane (idk how when I just permitted the military parade) I made Sordland look like we were promoting peace in the interview, exposed Rumburgian nukes in AN conference and their support of the BFF but they don’t get kicked from OMEC and during the war I also followed Iosef’s pincer attack as I was told by other forums. But I still lose and get killed every time.

I’m so confused on what I’m doing wrong, please help.