[SPC Update] Severe Weather Outlook (Issued: 2:56 PM CDT, April 24) | Today: Enhanced | Tor: 5% (CIG 1)

Full Forecast and Technical Discussion: SPC Convective Outlooks

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Day 1 Outlook — Issued: 2:56 PM CDT, April 24

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 24, 3:00 PM CDT — Mar 25, 7:00 AM CDT

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKLATEX...

SUMMARY: Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible. The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches) should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma to the ArkLaTex region.

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Day 2 Outlook — Issued: 12:30 PM CDT, April 24

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 25, 7:00 AM CDT — Mar 26, 7:00 AM CDT

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

SUMMARY: Severe thunderstorms, with a risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts of the southeastern Great Plains into the ArkLaTex, primarily Saturday afternoon and evening.

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Day 3 Outlook — Issued: 2:30 PM CDT, April 24

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 26, 7:00 AM CDT — Mar 27, 7:00 AM CDT

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

SUMMARY: Widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging wind gusts.

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Day 4-8 Extended Outlook

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Forecast Valid From: Mar 27, 7:00 AM CDT — Mar 2, 6:00 AM CST

Latest medium-range model output suggests that a significant short wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest will pivot northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, into the upper Great Lakes region, Monday through Monday night. It appears that the warm sector of an associated sub-1000 mb surface cyclone will become characterized by at least moderately large CAPE, ahead of the dryline/cold front overspreading much of the middle Mississippi Valley during the afternoon into evening. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear, organized severe thunderstorm activity appears probable.