Why is junior tafa the favorite?

He lost 4 of his last 5 why is he the favorite? Idk much about his opponent kevin christian but they both lost against billy elekana. Tafa lost by sub in the 2nd and kevin christian by sub in the 1st round.

Tafa had a good first round and was winning the first round, piecing up billy on the feet. I didn't watch kevin christian fight but he must be really trash if tafa is the favorite here.

Is kevin christian a fraud? He has 9 wins 9 finishes and 5 by submission. Looks like he will take this to the ground and finish by submission if he is smart. Tafa his ground game is trash, has 3 losses by submission. what am I missing?