From 2011 to 2019 — gold had -1% CAGR, Crude Oil had -6% CAGR, yet Nifty was not able to double your Gold in that 9 years - 5% CAGR

Discussion

I keep hearing that Nifty has beaten gold and that gold can stay flat for decades.
So I chose the worst cycle for gold and the worst cycle for crude oil.

Why? Because the input cost for Indian companies is oil, and companies often cite oil prices as an excuse, while billions are extracted for family offices of promoters.

But what was the excuse during the 2011 to 2019 era?
The INR lost ~40% of its value—so where did all the dollars that were pouring into India go? The cost of oil kept falling, yet Indian companies still could not even double real money (gold) in a decade when real value itself was flat or declining, and when input costs for Indian companies were lower each year due to falling oil prices.

Put another way, Indian companies only exist to attract SIP money at 100 PE. In that sense, the promoter first takes their salary and then benefits from SIP inflows, because at 100 PE they only need to sell 0.1% of their company to raise ₹100 crore.

In 2026, gold is at an all-time high, and crude oil is ~100% more expensive than it was in 2019. Indian companies would now need to grow at ~33% CAGR, while gold would need to remain constant, just to break even.

https://www.investing.com/currencies/xau-usd-historical-data
https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-historical-data
https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-historical-data
https://www.investing.com/indices/s-p-cnx-nifty-historical-data
https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-inr-historical-data
https://www.investing.com/currencies/xau-inr-historical-data

Posted Apr 28, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC